Many political analysts believe that LJP's decision to field a Scheduled Caste candidate could act as a "vote-cutter," affecting both the NDA and INDIA alliances' electoral prospects
The upcoming by-election for the Phulpur assembly seat in Uttar Pradesh’s Prayagraj district is poised for a thrilling contest between the ruling NDA and the opposition INDIA bloc. NDA ally Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) has announced its decision to field a candidate, potentially upsetting the BJP’s calculations and offering an advantage to the Samajwadi Party (SP).
The NDA is banking on highlighting the development initiatives of both the central and state governments. On the other hand, the opposition INDIA bloc aims to leverage public discontent by focusing on perceived failures of these governments, particularly in addressing the issue of price rise.
The SP has fielded Mohammad Mujtaba Siddiqui, who narrowly lost to the BJP candidate in the 2022 assembly elections by a margin of 2,723 votes. However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, there was a tough competition between the Samajwadi Party candidate Amar Nath Singh Maurya and the rival BJP candidate Praveen Patel. The seat was ultimately won by Patel.
The constituency boasts a diverse electorate of over 400,000 voters, with OBCs, particularly the Patel community, holding significant sway. The potential for Muslim vote consolidation further complicates the BJP’s path to victory.
A total of 4,07,366 voters will elect their MLA, including 2,23,560 male voters, 1,83,748 female voters, and 58 third-gender voters who will cast their ballots.
Currently, three parties have announced their candidates. The BSP was first, declaring Shivbaran Pasi on August 16. The SP followed suit on October 9, nominating three-time MLA Mohammad Mujtaba Siddiqui from the constituency. Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) has also fielded Shahid Akhtar Khan, although their impact is expected to be minimal given the SP’s Muslim candidate.
Rajiv Paswan, the Eastern Uttar Pradesh state president of Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas Paswan), which is part of the NDA, has announced that it will field a Scheduled Caste candidate on the Phulpur seat soon. It has been considered by many political analysts that the LJP’s decision to field a Scheduled Caste candidate may play the role of “vote-cutter,” potentially impacting both the NDA and INDIA blocs.
Historically, Phulpur assembly constituency, formerly known as Jhusi before delimitation, has witnessed a diverse range of winners in the 13 assembly elections held from 1974 to 2022. The BJP, Congress, and Janata Dal have each secured victory twice, while the Janata Party, Janata Party Secular, and BSP have won once each. The SP has emerged victorious four times.
MLAs Elected from Phulpur from 1974 to Present
- 1974: Congress party candidate Vidya Dhar emerged victorious
- 1977: Janata Party candidate Keshari Nath Tripathi emerged victorious
- 1980: JNP Secular candidate Baij Nath Prasad Kushwaha emerged victorious
- 1985: Congress party candidate Mahendra Pratap Singh emerged victorious
- 1989: Congress party candidate Mahendra Pratap Singh emerged victorious
- 1991: Congress party candidate Mahendra Pratap Singh emerged victorious
- 1993: SP party candidate Jawahar Yadav emerged victorious
- 1996: SP party candidate Vijma Yadav emerged victorious
- 2002: SP party candidate Vijma Yadav emerged victorious
- 2007: BSP party candidate Praveen Patel emerged victorious
- 2012: SP party candidate Sayeed Ahamad emerged victorious
- 2017: BJP party candidate Praveen Patel emerged victorious
- 2022: BJP party candidate Praveen Patel emerged victorious
Unemployment and development are key concerns in Phulpur. Despite the presence of an IFFCO fertilizer factory, the lack of significant industrial activity has contributed to a scarcity of employment opportunities.
While the BJP is yet to announce its candidate, sources suggest they are likely to field an OBC representative. The party is carefully assessing its options, recognizing the significance of this by-election.
The last day of filing of nominations is October 25 and the date of counting is November 23.
