Even the most ardent supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could not have predicted the electoral outcome in Haryana. A third consecutive term for the BJP, accompanied by an even larger mandate-in terms of both seats and vote share-is truly historic and reaffirms the adage, 'Modi hai to mumkin hai' (with Modi, it’s possible).
The odds were indeed formidable: Dalits appeared to be switching sides, Jats were leaning towards the Congress, subdued turnout in urban centres indicated middle-class fatigue, and serious questions arose about the BJP's strategy of forging a rainbow coalition that pits a dominant social group (the Jats in Haryana) against others. The dent in the Lok Sabha elections was interpreted as a sign of things to come, rather than a one-off event.
The slogans that once seemed mesmerising – "bullet trains", "space stations", "kisan ki aay duguni” (doubling farmers’ income), “smart cities”, “Jan Dhan”, and “housing for the poor” – were all grand in vision, with delivery that promised efficiency. However, the performance in the Lok Sabha elections gave the impression that these slogans had lost their impact, that the BJP’s electoral machinery was weakening, and that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s connection with the public was waning.
How wrong those doubting Thomases were. All naysayers overlooked the fact that Modi's BJP today is one of the most adaptable political parties seen in a long time. With its ear always to the ground, it is a master of course-correction. The Lok Sabha election results provided the BJP an opportunity to do just that, culminating in a stunning victory in Haryana.
And The Congress Refuses to Learn
In stark contrast to the adaptable BJP, the Congress seems to have perfected the art of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The inflexible high command ensures that local leadership never feels secure. As seen in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the Congress leadership never allowed the Hoodas in Haryana to establish themselves. Leaders like Kumari Selja and Randeep Singh Surjewala were elevated to counter Bhupinder Singh Hooda.
The Congress brass's rigidity led to a grave miscalculation: it took India's voters for granted. Behaving like a ruling party even before the votes were counted, the Congress displayed such a sense of entitlement that discussions about portfolio distribution began well ahead of the counting day. Indian voters have repeatedly shown that they punish those who assume they can take them for granted. Haryana is the latest example of voters sending a resounding message against arrogance.
BJP's Killer Instinct Back Before Crucial Maharashtra Polls
Haryana has demonstrated that the Modi magic remains as potent as it was 10 years ago. The 'Aayega to Modi Hi‘ sentiment continues to resonate, with the upset in June now seeming like a minor blip. With the Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir elections completed, attention now shifts to the crucial assembly elections in Maharashtra. With momentum regained, the BJP is poised to be formidable there once again.
Two Factors In J&K
In the Jammu & Kashmir assembly polls, two key factors were at play:
1. The extent of perceived loss in certain areas of the valley
2. Views on the tangible benefits in recent years, such as increased investment, a surge in tourist inflow, and a greater sense of security.
Initially, many were sceptical about the removal of Article 370; it was an emotional issue, and critics questioned how such a significant decision could have been made without involving the people.
After five years, it is evident that Jammu and Kashmir is in much better shape and has great potential for growth. Even sceptics can now acknowledge these advantages, although the resonance varies considerably between the Jammu region and the Kashmir valley. Despite a decade of incumbency, the BJP managed to increase its vote share this time – a notable achievement.
(The author is Consulting Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
