Most importantly, unlike previous elections, the ruling Mahayuti – BJP, Eknath Shinde's Shive Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP – will run a unified campaign that is likely to further boost the morale of the cadre of all three parties
Maharashtra is one of those rare examples where at least six principal parties are in the electoral fray for the upcoming assembly elections. But, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance – notwithstanding its below-par performance in the state during the Lok Sabha elections – is making an all-out effort to project a strong and united front.
Most importantly, unlike the previous elections, the ruling Mahayuti – how the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is known in Maharashtra – will run a unified campaign that is likely to further boost the morale of the cadre of all three parties.
What did the BJP decide in its CEC meeting?
While the BJP held its central election committee meeting in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday (October 16), sources said the party is confident about contesting 115 to 120 seats.
But, the central election committee (CEC) held a discussion about all 288 assembly constituencies in the state, which also include seats that their alliance partners – the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP – will contest.
“We had an overall discussion on which seat stands strong for which alliance partner, and there will be further talks in that direction. We have already decided on 240 seats in the alliance, and in the next couple of days, the remaining 48-odd seats will be decided,” a top BJP source told News18.
As of now, for the assembly polls, the BJP does not have plans to field sitting MPs or those who did not win the recently held Lok Sabha election or did not get a ticket to contest that election. The party is confident that after the course correction over the past months, it is in a position to have winning candidates from the state.
After the CEC meeting on Wednesday, another such meeting may not be required. The saffron party is likely to give all the powers to the president to further decide on tickets.
The division of the seats in the alliance will also be done on the basis of strengths and weaknesses in a particular region. For example, most of the seats in Marathwada region may be contested by the Shiv Sena, whereas the BJP and NCP may want to focus on Vidarbha and Mumbai.
“We also have to do a very scientific calculation of the contest. It is pretty natural that a contest between the two Senas is a given, so may be the case between the two factions of the NCP. In many such seats, there can be a direct contest between the BJP and Congress for that matter,” a party spokesperson said.
What is the focal point in the NDA strategy?
However, all efforts are being made to correct what went wrong in the general elections, where two regional parties split, and one half of both came to the NDA. However, the shift in the vote bank was not as the NDA would have liked.
“One of the biggest thrusts this time will be the transfer of votes. Netas came, but votes didn’t follow. For example, Shiv Sena came, but the ‘shivsainik’ did not,” said a BJP MP, who lost the Lok Sabha polls, adding that while the BJP was able to mobilise votes for the new entrants in the alliance, the Sena and NCP votes could not benefit the BJP much.
“Keeping in mind the possibility of some rebels coming out in the open about the party after the tickets are declared, which is possible in a big party like ours, senior leaders and experienced personnel who have dealt with Maharashtra in the past, like Bhupender Yadav, have already been working on the ground to mitigate such crisis,” a Maharashtra BJP leader said, on condition of anonymity.
The source also told us that within the next 24 to 48 hours, the first list of candidates is likely to be declared. It is quite possible that all the alliance partners can release their list around the same time.
On the sidelines of the swearing-in ceremony of the Haryana chief minister, which is going to be attended by all NDA CMs and deputy CMs, there could be a meeting between BJP top brass and NDA leaders from Maharashtra. After that meeting, in the presence of Modi, JP Nadda and Amit Shah from the Centre, more clarity will emerge.
“We will be having a discussion on multiple issues and, once everything is clear, we will hold a press conference in the state capital once again to declare the nuances of our alliance,” a national office-bearer aware of the development told News18.
What will the NDA campaign look like?
After the release of a press conference on the work done by the ruling Mahayuti government in the last two-and-a-half years, it is expected that the campaign of the alliance will be on similar lines. Wherever they campaign, they will have all three party symbols and, in fact, there will be several joint rallies by the top leaders of all three parties in the state.
Central leaders will also campaign for the alliance. The biggest star campaigner, undoubtedly, for the state will be the prime minister and he is in demand in all 288 seats, but it might not be possible for him to hold so many rallies. He is expected to hold a rally in each division across the state.
“PM Modi is expected to do a rally in each of the six divisions in the state, and we will begin his rallies only after Diwali when the election peaks,” a union minister told News18.
The NDA is also set to release a common manifesto with focus on development work done in the state and the development and welfare initiatives expected in future. The manifesto has been in the works for the past couple of weeks and is expected to take shape soon. The NDA is expected to announce its manifesto before the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
What are the lessons from past elections?
Just like in Madhya Pradesh, the effective implementation of the Ladki Behna scheme can be the game-changer for the alliance. “We have about 2.5 crore women who have registered for the scheme. It is bringing about a change to their daily lives with them being able to support education for children, taking care of medical expenses, starting small-time jobs and having some money for savings; this is the feedback received from the ground,” said a BJP MP from the state, on condition of anonymity.
Talking about the impact of such schemes on the ground, the MP added: “Women have been the most underrated support for any government. Behan hi jitaegi (our sisters’ votes will make us win).”
What one witnessed in the Haryana results recently was the consolidation of OBC votes, which largely helped the BJP win and wipe out the deficits of the Lok Sabha polls. Hence, the party is extremely confident that the formation of a rainbow coalition of smaller communities can add to its vote bank.
The major thrust of the party has been on seeking votes from Dalit Buddhists, who account for 60 percent of the Dalit votes in the state. “If there are 1 crore Dalits in the state, of them, 55 percent are Buddhist. Therefore, the silent campaign by the minority affairs minister, Kiren Rijiju, over the past three months has been extremely effective, and we are confident that the OBC vote will be with us in this election. We have been able to effectively make the OBC population understand that they fell for the…narrative of the opposition,” a state BJP office-bearer said.
What are the other factors?
Last, but not the least, the silent working force for the BJP has always been the RSS that continues to hold small meetings – sometimes at the family level – and they have proven to be extremely effective, like for the Haryana polls, the RSS held over 16,000 such meetings.
Nagpur, the RSS headquarters, is also in Maharashtra and it is here that the ideological partners of the BJP are expected to put in their best. It has been learnt that they are expected to hold at least four times the number of meetings in Maharashtra, than they did in Haryana.
On October 15, the Election Commission of India declared the dates for the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra. The state will vote in a single phase on November 20, following which the counting of votes will take place on November 23.
