Around 9 am, one hour into the counting of votes for the Haryana polls, the Congress had surged far ahead of the BJP. Jalebis and dhols marked celebrations at the Congress headquarters in Delhi, sharply contrasting with the deserted BJP office.
But an hour later, the tables turned and the BJP was back in the game. Two more hours later, the BJP was firmly ahead and appeared headed for its biggest win in Haryana, defying exit poll predictions by a wide margin. Now the BJP headquarters was abuzz, with laddoos, jalebis and the works. Congress leaders hoped against hope for a turnaround in what had initially been a see-saw battle. Several rounds of counting are still left, but the picture is unlikely to change a lot.
Here are the five factors that contributed to the Congress setback
Congress Infighting: The Congress won 31 seats in Haryana in the 2019 election. If the current numbers hold, the party has not improved its performance substantially to enable a comeback.
One major factor is the party's infighting and its top leaders squabbling for power. Much before the election, Congress leaders had maintained that victory was a foregone conclusion and had started jockeying for the Chief Minister post. The power tussle between Congress veteran Bhupinder Singh Hooda and senior leader Kumari Selja was out in the open, requiring much damage control behind the scenes.
While the Congress struggled to project a united front in the run-up to the election, it was crystal clear that the main opposition was a divided house. Mr Hooda was given a free hand in deciding candidates or alliances. The results show this did not work.
Regional Forces, Independents Ruin It For Opposition: While the Congress is marginally ahead of the BJP in the vote-share, the trends show it has not been very successful in converting this to seats. In several seats, the margin is very low, indicating that regional parties and Independents ate into the anti-incumbency votes in Haryana, benefiting the BJP.
The regional parties, however, failed to score in this election. The INLD and the BSP currently lead in one seat each and four Independents are ahead.
Anti-Jat Consolidation: While the Congress, led by Mr Hooda, focused on Jat votes, there was apparently a counter consolidation of non-Jat votes in favour of the BJP. In the run-up to the election, NDTV had repeatedly heard a term – Jatshahi (meaning supremacy of Jats). A Congress victory would have pointed to a return of the influential community’s heft in the state. Instead, other communities appear to have voted overwhelmingly in favour of the ruling party.
BJP's Backroom Work: Though poll analysts had written off the BJP in Haryana, silent work on the ground turned the tide in the ruling party’s favour. Union minister and BJP leader Dharmendra Pradhan was tasked with the party’s campaign for the tough election, and as the trends indicate, he has delivered in style. The BJP’s election machinery has yet again snatched victory from Congress’s jaws. Congress spokesperson Ajoy Kumar told NDTV that the party would definitely need to introspect why it could not convert public support into votes.
BJP's Urban Supremacy: Over the past decade, the BJP has consolidated support in Haryana’s urban areas, such as Gurgaon and Faridabad. The Congress had expected to sweep the rural areas, but this does not appear to have happened as much as it would have liked. In Gurgaon, Faridabad and Ballabhgarh, the BJP is leading at this point.
