The Congress-National Conference alliance is all but certain to form the next elected Jammu and Kashmir government, after battling to a commanding lead in the 2024 J&K Assembly poll – the first in the former state since Article 370 was scrapped and the first since the 2014 election.
At 3 pm – in what was supposed to be a tight race – the Congress-NC was leading in 48 seats.
The BJP was ahead in 29 and the People's Democratic Party of ex Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti – whose party allied with the former after 2014 but the two fell apart by 2018 – was leading in four.
Other candidates, including independents, were in pole position in nine seats.
Within the Congress-NC alliance, the former is leading in only six of the 39 seats it is contesting. That result has relegated the national party to apparent junior status in the government likely to be formed.
The big push is from the NC, which fielded candidates for 56 seats and is now ahead in 41. The results are a big positive change for the state party, which won only 15 in the last Assembly election in J&K.
The big negative change is for the PDP, which won 28 seats in the 2014 poll.
The Congress and the BJP are on course to just about match its past haul of 12 and 25.
J&K Assembly Election Confirmed Wins
The NC, the Congress, and the BJP have also had confirmed wins in this J&K election.
The NC has 31 confirmed wins at this time, including party boss Omar Abdullah from Budgam; this was one of two seats – the other was the family stronghold of Ganderbal – he was contesting.
The 54-year-old Omar Abdullah is over 10,000 seats ahead in that race. He has also been confirmed by his father as the new Chief Minister of J&K, assuming the Congress-NC alliance will retain its lead.
READ | “Omar Abdullah Banega J&K Chief Minister”: Farooq Abdullah
Other confirmed wins at this time are 21 for the BJP, five for the Congress, and two for the PDP.
The AAP scored its first ever J&K Assembly win, with Mehraj Malik claiming the Doda constituency.
Independent candidates won the Shopian, Inderwal, Bani, and Surankote seats.
What Exit Polls Said
The race to control the former state's 95 Assembly seats – of which five have been nominated by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha in a controversial move – was predicted to be a close one.
Exit polls gave the Congress-NC alliance a slight edge. An aggregate of three indicates the Congress-NC will win 43 seats and the BJP 26, with the PDP winning between four and 12.
Exit polls, therefore, predicted a hung Assembly; J&K has 90 elected seats with the majority at 46.
As things stand the Congress and the NC will have little problem in staking claim to form a first elected government in Jammu and Kashmir in a decade.
Row Over 5 Nominated MLAs
In the build-up to this election, there was controversy over an order by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha nominating five members to the Assembly. These five will hold "full legislative powers…"
The power to nominate was granted after the Delimitation Commission increased the number of seats in J&K. The five will include two women, two Kashmiri Pandits, and a displaced person from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir – to the Legislative Assembly, increasing the total number of seats to 95.
READ | J&K LG’s Power To Nominate MLAs Sparks Row Before Poll Results
The order was slammed by NC leaders Farooq Abdullah and his son, Omar Abdullah, and the Congress, as well as the PDP, criticised the Lieutenant Governor's move to nominate five members.
"This is an assault on democracy… and fundamental principles of the Constitution," senior J&K Congress Ravinder Sharma said. The NC and PDP slammed the "subversion of the people's mandate".
The argument was that this gave the BJP a shot at forming the government if it could not cross the majority mark on its own. Of course, that eventuality has now been ruled out.
'Kingmaker' PDP?
The PDP was seen as a possible 'kingmaker' before votes began to be counted.
Exit polls indicated the Congress-NC would fall just short of the majority mark and the BJP would finish further back. That, it was said, would bring the PDP's potential four to 12 MLAs into play.
The PDP earlier ruled out a re-run of its 2019 alliance with the BJP, insisting it will only consider a 'secular alliance'. That has sparked talk of aligning with the Congress-NC combine.
READ | “Why Not?” Farooq Abdullah On Post-Poll Alliance, PDP Says…
Last night NC patriarch Farooq Abdullah said "why not" when asked about the PDP as an ally, although that party's senior leader, Iltija Mufti, quickly called such speculation "unnecessary".
Farooq Abdullah's son, Omar Abdullah, also a former Chief Minister, was more circumspect in his response, posting on X, "They haven't extended support… haven't offered support… and we don't know what the voters have decided yet. So I wish we could put a lid on all this premature speculation…"
They haven't extended support, they haven't offered support and we don't know what the voters have decided yet, so I really wish we could put a lid on all this premature speculation for the next 24 hours. https://t.co/jc9KLPPVUU
— Omar Abdullah (@OmarAbdullah) October 7, 2024
Earlier Farooq Abdullah told news agency ANI, "I extend my heartfelt gratitude (to the PDP)… we will try to build this state together", when asked about news that Ms Mufti had offered her support.
However, the senior Mr Abdullah also clarified, "I have not spoken with her.. only read it in the paper."
Voting for this election took place over three phases – on September 18, September 25, and October 1.
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