BJP's historic win in Haryana has prompted the party to approach Maharashtra elections with a far more confident strategy mainly centred around five important concerns.
According to sources, the BJP is all set to fight the maximum number of seats, around 155, and wants to ensure it projects a unified campaign with its allies, Shiv Sena and NCP while maximising the optimism among voters surrounding the Ladki Bahin Yojana announced by the ruling alliance.
Reaching out to non-dominant communities and reducing the impact of Maratha agitation demands, ensuring vote transfer among its allies, and more importantly, running a campaign that addresses social and political anti-incumbency at the micro level are also top priorities.
After the first central election committee of the party met at the party headquarters on Wednesday night in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi too was present, along with Home Minister Amit Shah and other leaders of the party, sources said BJP could come out with its first list of candidates within two days and could fight on 154 to 158 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly.
The BJP with 105 seats had emerged as the single largest party in the 2019 assembly elections of the state. Its then ally – the undivided Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray had won 56 seats, while the undivided Nationalist Congress Party, which was part of the Opposition Congress-led UPA, had won 41 seats. The Congress had won 44 seats.
The BJP is now eyeing a comeback after a dismal performance in the Lok Sabha elections in the state six months ago where the party faced a setback winning only 9 out of 28 contested seats. Maharashtra is particularly important for the BJP, considering it houses the nation's commercial capital Mumbai, critical for investments, FDI and development focus of Modi 3.0, and also for issues of identity, including Maratha pride and prevalence of vocal Dalit-Ambekarite groups that have been critical opponents of the RSS.
Watching Rivals Closely
Those in the BJP working on the campaign say the party will push the "cognitive dissonance" in many of the Shiv Sena (UBT) voters that they claim are upset with the Lok Sabha results wherein the Congress won 16 seats.
"The core Shiv Sena voter has never liked the Congress, and in the Lok Sabha elections, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) vote transfer happened to its allies, the opposite didn't, which is why the Congress did very well, even better than the Shiv Sena (UBT) that fought on difficult seats. This will work to our advantage," a BJP functionary said.
Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is portrayed as the true Shiv Sainik, walking the path envisioned by Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray, and even taking it further by connecting with the common man. As Chief Minister, he has opened the doors of his official residence, Varsha, to the general public in a way no other Chief Minister has done before, making him relatable as a next-door Shiv Sainik. A party leader also mentioned that the Lok Sabha results cannot be seen as a barometer for what lies ahead, citing examples where the BJP won 5 out of 6 Assembly Constituency (AC) seats but lost the Lok Sabha seats, particularly in constituencies like Dhule and Malegaon. BJP insiders added that they are closely monitoring the MVA's strategy, especially looking for any mistakes they may make.
"If they announce Uddhav as the Chief Minister, we will rework our campaign too..but as of now that doesn't look possible," a party leader in Maharashtra said.
Focus On Organisational Strengths
A definitive change in the Haryana campaign of the BJP was the larger involvement of the RSS, with state in-charge Dharmendra Pradhan stressing optimising the organisational strength of the party.
"Dharmendra Pradhan comes from ABVP, the student wing of the RSS. He gets along very well with the RSS, specifically with leaders such as Dattatreya Hosabale. Similarly in Maharashtra, Bhupender Yadav has his origins in the Akhil Bharatiya Adhivakta Parishad, the lawyer's wing of the RSS. He knows the value RSS brings to BJP so he has made the campaign worker centric," a functionary of the party said.
BJP is also trying to address the problems of potential rebels. Senior minister Bhupender Yadav who is also in charge of the state, along with minister Ashwini Vaishnaw who is also the co-prabhari for the state election, has been tasked with talking to people. "Keeping the morale of workers high is top on the agenda. Home Minister Amit Shah has been holding meetings with workers in groups of 1,500 to 2,000 to understand their problems to motivate them to keep working, which is why a lot is not being talked about the Chief Minister face so that workers of other parties don't get demotivated.
Welfare Works
The trump card of the coalition's campaign however remains the populist measures the Chief Minister has announced, from the Mukhya Manti Ladki Bahin Yojana – a monthly allowance of Rs 1,500 to 2.5 crore women in the 18 to 65-year age group and Diwali bonus to BMC workers. The Ladki Bahin Yojana has particularly generated an overwhelming response, and the BJP thinks it will be a game-changer, as similar schemes were in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh where the BJP won assembly polls last year. The BJP is putting a lot of extra effort in Marathwada where it is working harder to ensure the agitation by Maratha activist Manoj Jarange Patil doesn't impact its prospects.
Its complete loss in the Marathwada region, where it failed to secure any of the 8 seats, is attributed to Maratha unrest over reservation issues. The BJP also faces challenges in retaining its dominance in Vidarbha, where the Congress trumped it in Lok Sabha elections.
Addressing Concerns Over Vote Transfer
Party with its allies has decided that it will mount one common campaign with a common tagline to show a united face. "It comes in the natural course, but the BJP is being fielded in direct contests with Congress and in seats where the OBC communities are dominant. Wherever there are Marathas the Shinde Sena is our best bet. Ajit Pawar's candidates have pockets of influence which have been taken into account," said another functionary.
The unified campaign of the Mahayuti allies is likely to be centred around projects executed by the Centre and Mahayuti government, and the ruling coalition executing projects stalled by the MVA. Sources said as of now there are no plans to get former MPs to contest elections but family members of some netas, particularly those who have proved their mettle in the past are likely to figure in the list.
"There is much emphasis on symbols as vote transfer was a concern in 2024. Every leader's campaign will prominently feature symbols of allies. Joint rallies are being discussed," the functionary cited above said.
PM Modi's rallies in Maharashtra are likely to begin after Diwali for maximum impact. There will at least be one PM rally in each of the six divisions of Maharashtra, sources said.
Outreach To All Castes
BJP is reaching out to smaller, non-Maratha communities too. A rainbow coalition of communities is what the BJP is looking at, taking a cue from its strategy in Haryana. Around 100 such meetings led by party leaders have taken place in the last few days.
Much focus on the Dalit vote drifting away from the BJP in Lok Sabha. Sources said while Kiren Rijiju is working on Buddhist Dalits who constitute 60 per cent of the Dalit population, the party is hopeful that with welfare schemes, Dalits will come back to the party fold.
According to those dealing with caste and community outreach in Maharashtra, the party is reaching out to communities such as Mahar, Chanar, Matang, Valmiki and others. "Except a few, many of them have voted for the BJP at least some time. So we are working on them to get their support," the party functionary said.
He added that OBC communities like Dhankhar, Mali, Kunbi, Vanjari and at least 50 others have been the BJP's core strength.
"We also have at least 25 Maratha leaders from different parts of the state that we will project prominently. The party has had over 45 per cent vote share which is not possible with the support of Marathas," he said.
The state has nine reserved seats for Scheduled Tribes and Scheduled Castes, of which Nandurbar, Gadchiroli-Chimur, Palghar and Dindori are reserved for STs, while Amaravati, Ramtek, Latur, Solapur and Shirdi are reserved for SCs.
Of the nine seats, Congress won six in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and BJP managed just one, down from its tally of seven in 2019. Minority Affairs minister in the Modi cabinet Kiren Rijiju has been specifically tasked with reaching out to neo-Buddhists, who comprise a significant part of the overall Dalit population in the state.
Additionally, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi rallying with the Gondwana Gantantra party will cut into some Opposition votes, BJP sources said, adding that smaller parties have also had a role to play in Maharashtra elections.
Spotlight On Micro Issues
But it is the micro outlook that the BJP says will help it drive its results. There are identity issues such as Maratha reservation and split in Shiv Sena and NCP but there are identity issues such as inflation, the farmers' crisis, prices of onion, cotton and soybean, water scarcity, healthcare, road connectivity, and employment opportunities that played a big role in Lok Sabha elections. "Some of them have been addressed by cabinet decisions but a lot more needs to be done to get the sentiment fully backing us," another functionary said.
